Real Estate In The Time of Coronavirus: A look at the numbers after week number nine. Observations offered for your consideration.
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020
There's reason for at least some optimism about the local real estate market. The numbers are trending up. In some areas and in some price ranges sellers are doing well. In other areas and in other price ranges buyers might even have the upper hand. As a practitioner, however, it's hard to be enthusiastic about A 50% drop in market activity compared to last year.
To be fair, real estate is better off than many sectors - particularly bars & restaurants. I'm not complaining so much as explaining. It's important for consumers to separate out the anecdotal information from the overall picture of the market.
As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Due to the Memorial Day holiday there will be no Q&A Zoom meeting this Monday evening.
Monday evening Q&A sessions will re-Zoom next week.
The number of newly listed properties was larger this week than it was on the same week in 2019!
For the first time since the shutdown the number of newly listed properties was higher on weekly basis than it was last year. Listings have come in at average of more than 200 per week for the last three weeks. Pretty good, right? Yes BUT... Last year the average number of listings per week over the same three week period was a whopping 283! Listings this year are still only about 55% of what they were last year at this time.
What about properties under contract?
The number of properties under contract has been fluctuating on a weekly basis. Porperties under contract went down this week compared to last week and compared to last year. However, the long term trend is on the rise if every-so-slowly.
It should come as no surprise that market activity has been moving along in fits-and-starts this year. The rules have been changing. The weather has been out-of-synch with the calendar. The economy is opening back up in a rational way but not in a particularly friendly to home buyers and home sellers. People aren’t entirely sure what to think about the future. Making a large purchase that requires confidence about the future is very difficult under these circumstances. One day you’re feeling good and the next day not-so-much.
Let's look at "The Success Rate".
I call the percentage of properties under contract the Success Rate. By under contract I mean the sellers have accepted an offer from a buyer. It doesn't mean the deal has closed. The Success Rate changes from day to day because some deals fall apart one week and others come together. Still, The Success Rate gives us a nice on-the-fly measure of market activity. By comparing the Success Rate in 2020 with the Success Rate in 2019 we can see if the market is favoring buyers vs sellers this year compared to last year.
So, what about it?
Since the shutdown on March 23, 2020 the Success Rate is running about 54%. In 2019 the success rate for the same period last year was just over 63%. The overall Success Rate suggests buyers may have an slight edge compared to last year. Remember, last year was a hell of a good year for sellers.
Before you scream in my face about all the stories you’re hearing about gads of offers on every house everywhere remember, it’s a Facebook world. We only hear about certain kinds of stories. People don’t normally post about the unusually long time their property sat on the market or how they had to drop their price or how a deal failed. I’m not saying property values are dropping. I’m not saying it’s a “buyers’ market”. It’s not a buyers’ market overall. The market seems to be favoring sellers overall. Still, compared to last year...
One way or the other buyers should proceed with caution.
Sellers’ expectations are very, very, very high. Sooooo high! In certain areas the market has been delivering the goods. However, because the market has not been quite as favorable to sellers this year compared to last year buyers should assess their situation carefully to make sure they are submitting offers based on good information.
Don’t rely on historic sales data. Sadly, the historic sales information is of little use to buyers in today’s market. There is no trend line. The trend line was obliterated by COVID-19. We won’t be able to discern a reliable trend line again until summer or fall of 2021. We’ll only be able to look back in wonder at what happened In 2020. 2020 is and will always be an anomaly.
The marketplace is pricing properties in real time. It’s all about supply and demand. In this market a property that sits unsold after a couple of weeks is probably overpriced. Regardless of how long a property has been on the market if there are multiple offers under consideration by the seller, that property is probably underpriced. This is not a bashful market. Buyers aren’t sitting on the sidelines. This may be a bubble but you can’t buy today’s inventory at next year’s prices. If you don’t like the water, get out of the pool.
The information below includes single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County.
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