Real Estate In The Time of Coronavirus: Week 10 - The Numbers

6/1/2020

Real Estate In The Time of Coronavirus: Week 10 - The Numbers

The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020

Another week has passed and so we'll take a look at the numbers for single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County.

As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com

I have noticed a steady drop-off in the number of clients interested in group Q & A sessions using the Zoom platform. As a result, until further notice I will no longer be hosting client Q & A sessions on Monday nights. However, I will continue to use Zoom and other similar platforms for individual client needs.

Highlights from this week's numbers:

The number of homes listed for sale last week dipped below 200. I found this somewhat surprising. I'm guessing the number of properties listed for sale in the coming week will jump up again.
The cumulative Success Rate for 2020 since March 23rd is clocking in a just under 60%. Over the same period in 2019 the Success Rate was nearly 70%. (The Success Rate measures the number of properties that have an accepted offer as a percentage of the number of properties listed for sale.) The Success Rate gap should narrow in the weeks to come.
The number of properties listed for sale between March 23rd and May 31st in 2020 is down 42.7% compared to last year over the same period.
The number of properties that have accepted an offer between March 23rd and May 31st in 2020 is down a whopping 51.1% compared to last year over the same period.
June is traditionally one of the busiest months of the year for real estate. I expect overall activity to rise notable over the coming weeks. Business tends to drift down in July and August. However, this year I expect the local real estate market to reamin activity through the Summer and into the Fall with the exceptions of national holiday weeks (4th of July & Labor Day).

A NOTE ON PROPERTY VALUES:

When the seller of a home accepts an offer it takes approximately two months for the transaction to close and for the final price to be recorded. As a result, there is very, very little data on sale prices following the March 23rd shutdown. Once we know sales prices we can then take a look at the difference between those sales prices and the asking prices. We can also calculate the median and the mean. Unfortunately, it will be many, many months before we can do these calculations and see any trends based on sale prices. It will be at least a year until trend lines are demonstrable in any form. If normal seasonal variations are skewed due to the impacts of COVID-19, it may be years before we see normal seasonal trends!

In the meantime, we can look at three factors:

Anecdotal Information - What I can see for myself; what my colleagues tell me; what my clients tell me; and what I hear from others. As interesting as this information might seem when we become aware of it it's not of much use in understanding what's really going on over the long term.
The Success Rate - What percent of listings have taken an offer. This rate helps us to learn about the balance between the supply of properties and the demand. I have been sharing this information for months.
Days On The Market - Of the properties that have taken an offer how many days were those properties on the market before their offer was accepted? Generally speaking, a longer period of time on the market is an indication the market is softening for sellers. How does this year compare to last year? I'll take a closer look at DAYS ON THE MARKET in a future post.

The information below includes single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County.