Real Estate in the Time of Coronavirus: Emerging Trends In The Local Real Estate Market. Rome Predicts The Future.

​The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)

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Thirty days have passed since the start of Governor Cuomo’s executive order known as “New York on PAUSE”.  It appears the COVID-19 infection curve is flattening in our area. We still have difficult and painful COVID-19 news on the horizon but, thankfully, we appear to be heading towards better days.

Real estate property listings and sales are inching up s-l-o-w-l-y. The growth in newly listed properties is picking up steam. The “success rate” is up, too. Overall, however, compared to the same period last year, the numbers are still anemic. Updated numbers are below.

​As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation.
Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. ​Email: romecelli@realtor.com

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I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market.
Monday, April 27, 2020 at 6:30 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING
Meeting ID: 585 732 1767
Password: 625369

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Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums:

The real estate market in 2020 under the New York on PAUSE restrictions:
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• New listings March 23, 2020 - April 22, 2020:  474 (15.8 average per day)
• Properties under contract March 23, 2020 - April 22, 2020:  195 (6.5 average per day)
• Properties that were listed from March 23, 2020 - April 22, 2020 and since dropped off the market:  34 (1.13 average per day)
• Success rate (the number of accepted contracts/the number of property listings) in 2020: 41.1 %

The real estate market in 2019:
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• ​​New listings March 23, 2019 - April 22, 2019:  1050 (35.0 average per day)
• Properties “under contract” March 23, 2019 - April 22, 2019:  615 (20.5 average per day)
• Success rate (the number of accepted contracts/the number of property listings) in 2019: 56.1%

 

• 2020 new property listings as compared to 2019:   45.1%
• 2020 properties “under contract” as compared to 2019:  31.7%​

A growth trend in the real estate market may be emerging.

Some days the number of newly listed properties drifts down but recently the numbers seem to be trending up. The same is true for the number of properties with an accepted offer AND the success rate - the percentage of properties that have offers.

Yes, the absolute number of property listings in 2020 and the number of properties under contract in 2020 remains very, very low compared to last year. No, real estate agents still can’t leave their homes except in certain very limited circumstances.

 If the numbers continue to rise, it will indicate:

1. Agents are slowly figuring out how to successfully market and sell properties under NY on PAUSE;
2. Buyers are slowly getting more comfortable purchasing properties under NY on PAUSE;
3. Property values may be able to hold their own during NY on PAUSE; and
4. Buyers may find in many cases they will not have a negotiating advantage during NY on PAUSE.

Still, we have a long, long way to go...

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Looking into my crystal ball:

Here are my current PREDICTIONS as to when/how the real estate market will be reopened in the coming months. Of course, I  could be wrong. Every businessperson plans using predictions. I’ve been doing so for decades. These are the dates and activities I am planning around at the moment:

1. IMHO sometime between May 15, 2020 & June 15, 2020 real estate agents and consumers will be allowed to enter properties individually/alone (with the seller’s informed permission) regardless of whether the property is vacant (no one is living in the property) or occupied wearing PPE. Agents will be able to conduct nearly all of their normal business activities individually/alone at this point. Social distancing rules will still apply. This will be a significant step forward for the real estate market! At this point I believe the real estate market will jump dramatically to more than 70% of its “normal” level of activity - close to double where it is now. It’s not clear testing will be widespread by then. If testing is available, though, some agents and some consumers may test positive for the virus and therefore may not be able to participate in the market in person for a few weeks or more. With or without testing there will be people who either self-identify as being more vulnerable to the disease or who just plain fear infection. These groups will sit on the sidelines looking at properties online and watching video conference tours, if anything.
2. IMHO sometime between July 15, 2020 & September 31, 2020 real estate agents will be given permission to meet their clients in persons using PPE and social distancing. When real estate agents are allowed to meet their clients in person I expect 85% or more of the real estate market’s energy will return. Extreme caution will be advised as Fall and the national election approaches out of fear of a second COVID-19 wave. If a second wave develops and the rules become more restrictive again, the market will cool off accordingly. 
3. IMHO sometime between February 1, 2021 and May 31, 2021 if there is no serious resurgence of COVID-19, real estate agents will be able to hold limited in-person open house type activities. Small groups of prospective buyers and their agents will be able to enter a property together with PPE and social distancing. By this point I expect some treatments for those infected with COVID-19 may become available. When treatments become available some of the latent fear will diminish.
4. IMHO sometime between August 1, 2021 and December 31, 2021 an inoculation for the virus will be widely available and all restrictions related to real estate will be lifted.

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​UNLESS, of course, something goes wrong...

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Our Status.

• No change in the health status my family, Carol’s family or Sasha’s family. All good so far.

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• Mostly I am working out of my home. Every few days I stop into the office.
• I am regularly showing properties using video conference technology.
• I am regularly discussing and negotiating purchase offers on behalf of my clients.
• I have successfully listed and sold a number of properties during NY on PAUSE.

 

• If you have time, please feel free to send me an update on how you’re doing.​

I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust.

I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis!​

Yours,

Rome Celli
585-732-1767
romecelli@realtor.com

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