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The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
Now that more than a month has passed I was able to compile some numbers for a week-by-week comparison rather than looking exclusively at the every-other-day cumulative data I've been sharing up to now. There's a LOT of information to take in. I don't want to overload you. So, here's the exec summary: The local real estate market isn't all doom and gloom even under these very difficult circumstances. The trend lines look promising even if the overall number of listings and transactions are way down compared to last year. All the nitty and the gritty numbers are below.
The virus numbers continue to trend downwards. Governor Cuomo has been devoting more time to his plans for reopening the economy in New York State. Yesterday he indicated the state would likely open up construction and manufacturing businesses around May 15th. In my opinion the first step in reopening the real estate market will not be far behind. Remember, I said the first step would be that real estate agents would be allowed to enter properties ALONE regardless of whether or not the property is vacant. That day is coming and it's coming soon. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com
I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market.
Monday, April 27, 2020 at 6:30 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 Real estate market data: A week-by-week comparison to last year.
First, a primer on the information you see below. Now that we are more than a month out from the shutdown date of March 23, 2020 we have enough data to compare a series of weeks. There is a natural weekly rhythm to real estate. Each week the cycle tends to repeat. I wanted to see if any interesting trends were emerging that could only be discerned by looking at weekly numbers.
Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums:
Looking at the current year under NY on PAUSE:
# Listings: Shows the number of new property listings that were registered in a given week. # Contracts: Shows the number of homes on the market that have an accepted offer (as of April 26, 2020). This column is a bit tricky to understand because a property listed in the first week might receive an offer at any time thereafter. So, the number of listings each week remains constant while the number of purchase contracts changes frequently. To make matters more complicated the number of contracts may go up and down. Why? Because some offers fall apart. As time passes, however, we would expect the "success rate" to rise as more and more properties take offers and those offers eventually close. So, to get an accurate picture of market activity you have to update the information over time. 
2020 under NY on PAUSE: The number of property listings per week this year and the number of those properties that have accepted an offer per week as registered in the ML database by April 26, 2020.
Looking back to our comparison year of 2019: Where we at this time last year?
# Listings: Shows the number of property listings that were registered in a given week back in 2019. # Contracts: Shows the number of homes on the market back in 2019 that took an offer. Although this data set looks back a full year it is still a snapshot of the market taken on April 26, 2019. So, properties listed on April 17th may not have accepted an offer as of April 26th. 
Comparison year of 2019: The number of property listings per week last year (2019) and the number of those properties that had an accepted an offer on a weekly basis (last year) as registered in the ML database.
# Listings Comparing 2020 to 2019 as a percentage: This column compares 2020 to 2019 directly by dividing the number of new property listings in a given week in 2020 by the number of new property listings in a given week in 2019 to obtain a percentage. # Contracts Comparing 2020 to 2019 as a percentage: This column compares 2020 to 2019 directly by dividing the number of accepted offers in 2020 (as of April 26, 2020) by the number of accepted offers in 2019 (as of April 26, 2019) to obtain a percentage. 
What do the week-by-week data tell us?!
First, and perhaps most importantly, the success rate between this year and last year is down BUT it's not down dramatically and it appears to be getting stronger. Actually, the success rate is better than one would have expected under these circumstances. As a result, it does not appear as though property values are suffering at this stage of the crisis. That is NOT to say property values are rising. In fact, values may still take a hit. We won't know for sure for many months. Still, the fact that a good percentage of properties are accepting offers is a encouraging sign indeed. Second, it appears newer listings are getting more action than older listings. My guess is that buyers entering the market every day are focusing on new listings. "Older" listings (those on the market a week or longer) aren't as highly regarded by buyers as the brand new property listings that pop up moment by moment. Lastly, the overall number of listings and accepted offers are still way, way down compared to last year. I doubt we'll ever catch up to the overall number of transactions.
All of the week-by-week information described above has been embedded in the reports I've been sending up to now. The big difference is the data below offers a cumulative perspective rather than exposing week-by-week trends.
The real estate market in 2020 under the New York on PAUSE restrictions:
The real estate market in 2019:
Cuomo explains his plan to reopen the economy regionally in NYS:
Our Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
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The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
 Thirty days have passed since the start of Governor Cuomo’s executive order known as “New York on PAUSE”. It appears the COVID-19 infection curve is flattening in our area. We still have difficult and painful COVID-19 news on the horizon but, thankfully, we appear to be heading towards better days. Real estate property listings and sales are inching up s-l-o-w-l-y. The growth in newly listed properties is picking up steam. The “success rate” is up, too. Overall, however, compared to the same period last year, the numbers are still anemic. Updated numbers are below. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. Monday, April 27, 2020 at 6:30 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums: The real estate market in 2020 under the New York on PAUSE restrictions:
The real estate market in 2019:
A growth trend in the real estate market may be emerging. Some days the number of newly listed properties drifts down but recently the numbers seem to be trending up. The same is true for the number of properties with an accepted offer AND the success rate - the percentage of properties that have offers. Yes, the absolute number of property listings in 2020 and the number of properties under contract in 2020 remains very, very low compared to last year. No, real estate agents still can’t leave their homes except in certain very limited circumstances. If the numbers continue to rise, it will indicate:
Still, we have a long, long way to go... Looking into my crystal ball: Here are my current PREDICTIONS as to when/how the real estate market will be reopened in the coming months. Of course, I could be wrong. Every businessperson plans using predictions. I’ve been doing so for decades. These are the dates and activities I am planning around at the moment:
UNLESS, of course, something goes wrong... Our Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
 My last post prompted a number of questions & then conversations with individual clients around interpretations of the rules related to the real estate market under New York on PAUSE. You, too, may be wondering how I would handle your particular situation. I layout my approach below. The newest numbers show a rise in the "success rate" - the number of properties that have taken an offer as a percentage of the number of properties listed for sale since March 23, 2020. The number of properties listed for sale dropped a bit compared to the last report. All the details are below. Just a few days ago I read a blog post by a reliable source with some important advice about mortgage payment forbearance during the pandemic. I'll give you a quick summary of the letter along with a link to the full details. If you are willing to spend 15-30 minutes reading an analysis of actions necessary to halt COVID-19 and then reopen the economy, I strongly recommend you check the information and links below. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:00 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 My real estate services under NY on PAUSE explained. My last post on the ways NY on PAUSE was being interpreted left some clients with questions. They contacted me asking what the various interpretations meant for their particular situation as well as a for a clarification about how I will conduct my business. Here's the answer in a nutshell: "informed service customization." Now as ever I will take a consultative approach. First, I will listen.
Then we will discuss the NY on PAUSE rules and the various interpretations I'm seeing out the marketplace. We will review the advantages and disadvantages of each option along with all the other considerations necessary for you to make informed choices. In the end you will decide what's best. I will implement your plan as you direct. Bottom line: The real estate services I provide to you will be customized to suit your particular interests; maximize the benefits to you and minimize any foreseeable downside risks. I have learned it's best to make a plan, implement the plan, remain flexible, consider the results along the way, and adjust as necessary until you reach your goals. Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums: The real estate market in 2020 under the New York on PAUSE restrictions:
The real estate market in 2019:
My observations on these updated numbers. The number of property listings in 2020 and the number of properties under contract in 2020 remains very, very low compared to last year.
If the success rate continues to rise over time and becomes a trend, it will indicate:
It's still far too early to know which way the numbers will trend. For example, if the number of properties listed for sale rises faster than the number or properties taking offers in the coming days, that would put a damper on any advantages for sellers. We have a long, long way to go... Some advice about "mortgage forbearance": A couple of days ago a very reliable source, Mike Donoghue (founder, President and CEO of Premium Mortgage Corporation), posted an important alert regarding mortgage payment forbearance on the Premium Mortgage website blog. Donoghue points out mortgage forbearance isn't NOT mortgage forgiveness. He points out to readers who may want to take advantage of new mortgage forbearance rules there are some significant unfortunate side effects related to borrowers' future creditworthiness. Anyone experiencing cash flow problems may want to look at other options before signing up for mortgage forbearance. CLICK HERE to read Mike Donoghue's blog post. If you only have time to read one analysis related to stopping COVID-19 and reopening the economy, read on... Over the past few weeks I have been following and reading posts by Tomas Pueyo on Medium.com. The site is free. His posts have proven insightful and predictive. If you have time, go back and read his posts from March 1st up to now. Pueyo will post his analysis of how to re-open up the economy on a serial basis, once each day. Click here to read his most recent post. Our Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
 In my last post I asked you to weigh in on the impact of the pandemic on the local real estate market. Your answers and my notes are below. There are rules and then there are interpretations of rules. Ask three real estate agents about how the “NY on PAUSE” rules apply under a given set of circumstances and you will probably get three difference answers. Even the local and state real estate trade associations don’t appear to agree. How does this affect the our real estate market? Should differing opinions about the rules change your decisions? See below. The number of new property listings continues to rise but the number of accepted contracts remain low. I’ve added a new calculation: “Success Rate”. I’ll give you the numbers and explain Success Rate below. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:00 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 Survey Responses: 39 responses out of 97 (40% response rate) Question #1: Roughly, when do you think real estate agents will once again be able to meet their clients in person (even if social distancing is still required)? Summer, 2020 - 30 - 77% Fall, 2020 - 6 - 15% Spring, 2020 - 3 - 8% Winter, 2020-2021 - 0 - 0% A few notable comments sent by clients: “...my optimistic hope is that we'll be back to some amount of normalcy for small groups by the end of June.” — “Based on what we're seeing in local Covid cases and what the county health commissioner is saying, we think the county might advise lifting local restrictions in mid to late June. If that's the case, presumably agents could start seeing clients in July.. If local cases start rising sharply, obviously that date would move to fall – or later.” — “This will depend on availability of tests for immunity.” My take: I agree with the majority view on this one. Unless the rate of infection begins to rise again real estate agents are likely to be able to meet clients in person (small groups only) sometime this summer. If I had to guess when? Late June or early July. Question #2: Are real estate transactions too much of a health risk for society right now? No - 28 - 72% I don’t know - 7 - 18% Yes - 4 - 11% A few notable comments sent by clients: “With strict social distancing protocols I think it should be allowed. People can feel free to opt out or use video if they prefer that.” — “There are ways to protect those involved, if diligent.” — “i beleive remote real estate transactions are no problem, but meeting in person still carries a huge risk” — “If practiced with all proper caution, they are less risky than grocery shopping.” — “We know the proper procedure. How long can we live in a bubble?“ — “I am 'post 65' and have a history of chronic pneumonia, I am concerned. I am also a client who was to list my home the first week of April ... I, hopefully, am planning to sell my house some time this year, when is really out of our hands and in the hands of the virus and societies ability to deal with it. I do feel this will not extend to the creation of a vaccine, more likely a development of a therapeutic that allows this illness to be less lethal. Then we have more or less a severe flu event.” My take: Again, I agree with the majority view. Frankly, as long as real estate professionals conduct their business remotely/responsibly and encourage their clients and the public to do so as well, I do not think the real estate transactions under the current rules present a significant risk to individual or public health. Question #3: Overall, what will happen to property values in Monroe County in 2020? Down - 22 - 56% Same - 17 - 44% Up - 0 - 0% A few notable comments sent by clients: “I would imagine there is going to be higher demand for rental properties as investors worry about recession and a possible depression of our economy, lasting many months or perhaps 1-2 years.” — “on average i expect properties to stay about the same, but this heavily depends on hopw long this pandemic and PAUSE rules stay in place, as well as how many people stay employed” — “Pure hunch here; unless unemployment AMONG HOMEBUYERS rises, or Covid lasts a long time here or returns in the fall, etc., I think the real estate market will settle down.” — “I think they will go down temporarily as people recover from their losses. I feel it will rebound in the spring of 2021 if we can keep this virus at bay. With a little luck we may see a resurgence in the early Fall.” My take: This is a tough one. First, here’s what I would bet on: the overall number of transactions year-over-year will be down by a greater amount than I’ve seen in the 40 years I’ve been practicing. I don’t see how we can catch up to the shear volume of last year’s transactions. I’m not sure a lower number of transactions necessarily results in lower property values. Lower values will result from too many houses for sale compared to the number of buyers. Clearly, if you loose your job, you probably can’t buy a home. Losing your job doesn’t necessitate selling a home though - at least not right away. We saw this in 2008-2010. Remember, not every house that’s listed MUST sell. Some will try and if they aren’t successful, owners may just pull their property off the market and wait. Only properties that actually sell are counted towards the property value calculation. I suspect we are in for a modest recession lasting one to two years or so. A modest recession will probably balance the market between buyers and sellers in rochester giving buyers more leverage then they’ve had in a number of years and that will tend to reduce the rate of growth in values if not cause values to actually decline. Interest rates will probably drop so that should help keep the market rolling. Even so, many buyers will tend to step down to somewhat lower priced homes dragging the median price in that direction. Sellers may have to work harder to get their property ready for the market. Average homes in Rochester will linger on the market a little longer than they have in recent memory. If we dip into recession I’m willing to bet there will still be pockets in our area that will continue to do very well. Properties that may have attracted many offers may only get several. Instead of selling right off the bat it may take some properties a bit longer. Nothing about a modest recession will change the underlying market appeal found in those hot areas. On the other hand, if we enter a major/protracted economic recession or a depression, property values will come down. The same is likely to be true if we experience a second wave of COVID-19 in our area or across the state/nation and the economy shuts down again. Question #4: If a friend or family member wants to sell AND buy property NEXT YEAR, what should they be concerned about? B.) Not getting a high enough price for their current property - 13 - 33% None of the above. These issues shouldn’t be concerning NEXT YEAR - 10 - 26% C.) Coronavirus/COVID-19 (personal illness or contributing to a second wave of COVID-19) - 7 - 18% Answers A & B - 6 - 15% A, B & C - 3 - 8% A.) Paying too much for their new property - 0% A few notable comments sent by clients: “I do not have high hopes for the future economy. But I am typically a pessimist.” — “next year is so far away it is hard to tell from a pricing standpoint, but a second wave of COVID-19 is very likely to effect next year if we are not careful” — “I suppose it would depend on whether the market gets flooded with listings when we're give the all clear. And whether people will continue to buy. A very low interest rate would certainly stimulate the housing market.” — “We were in a 'tired' bull market nationally this year anyway but our real estate market was strong. ...But if anyone says they are certain about what is going to happen I would say they are smoking something ...” My take: My goal with this question was to gauge respondents attitudes about the future. Well, it turns out most of the people who answered were pretty worried. Only 26% of respondents were feeling optimistic about next year’s real estate market. The truth it, there’s a LOT to worry about, right? Maybe 26% is actually a high number given what were facing! Rules and the interpretation of rules. I guess I should have expected this but I didn’t. The NY on PAUSE rules - as they apply to the real estate market - haven’t changed since last week and yet I have observed a variety of real estate trade associations and real estate companies offering seemingly contradictory advice on how to apply the rules. All this is resulting in differences in how agents are behaving in the real estate marketplace. Some are interpreting the rules to allow for more freedom of action and some are restricting their actions severely as a result of guidance given by their companies and trade associations. Is there any agreement at all? Yes. I have not personally witnessed a real estate agent put another person directly at risk by meeting with a client or consumer in person under the current rules. I have not heard a real estate agent even suggest including a client/consumer on an appointment. There appears to be nearly universal agreement that meeting anyone in person is not permitted. I can tell you from personal experience a seller-client ask me to be present while an “unaccompanied” buyer walks through their property - at a safe social distance. (“Unaccompanied” appointments by buyers are permitted under very limited circumstances.) I declined to be present in the property with the buyer citing widespread agreement that it may be unsafe for all parties and that I was not permitted to do so under NY on PAUSE. I ended up driving out to the property but I did not leave my car. I wanted to provide moral support to my client even if I could not fully accede to their wishes. It is precisely this sort of situation along with a disagreement on the interpretation offered by real estate trade associations that creates pressure to interpret the rules at variance from their strictest application. When a client asks we WANT to provide the service they request and expect. Providing client service is not the only situation leading to variable behavior in the marketplace. The financial pressure agents are under is also likely leading to behaviors that don’t strictly abide. And, as you might expect, I’m certain that are some agents who see their own interests as paramount. Those agents interpret the rules in any way necessary to support their personal benefit. Nothing short of enforcement will stop those agents. The most common and significant area of disagreement appears to be around real estate agents going into properties on their own. If the seller gives informed consent and no one is present in the property, can a real estate agent look inside a property alone? Can an agent go to an empty property alone to take photographs or conduct a virtual tour using FaceTime, Zoom or another similar video conferencing service with the seller’s informed consent? Some say yes. “What’s the harm?” Some say no. “NY on PAUSE says we can’t.” Does it? The experts we rely on don’t agree. It depends how you interpret the language. It should be remembered more people traveling around, more people coming and going from properties all over our area, more activity drives more spread of the virus. If we were talking about one real estate agent looking at one property, the risk to society would be negligible. If we’re talking about HUNDREDS of real estate agents going in and out of HUNDREDS of properties, that’s another matter, right? Until a penalty is levied and then litigated there probably won’t be a definitive answer. Chances are good the rules won’t be around long enough to be litigated. Frankly, I’m doubtful any but the MOST fragrant violations will be enforced. It’s quite likely lesser violations will be tacitly allowed. This is no small matter. Visiting a property in person can make all the difference on a buyer’s decision to submit an offer. No one wants to cause any harm. My sellers and buyers - YOU - want to conduct business, right? I hear it time and time again. The question now becomes what are WE going to do? Indeed. You and I will have to talk through your particular situation to to determine the best course of action with the understanding that there is only so much we can do under these extremely unusual circumstances. In addition to looking at market conditions we will consult the rules, assess the risks and calibrate our actions. We will work together to identify the right path to keep you safe, abide by the rules and accomplish your real estate goals. I give you my promise I will provide you with the highest level of service allowable under the law. Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums: The real estate market in 2020:
The real estate market in 2019:
Over the last couple of days the number of new listings and the number of properties under contract ticked up. The 2020 numbers also ticked up as compared to last year over the same period. Still, the number of homes listed is DOWN by more than 55% and the number of properties under contract is DOWN by nearly 75%. Dramatic. In terms of the shear number of transactions, it’s very hard to believe our area will catch up to last year’s totals. Many people who would have liked to purchase and/or property this year will be disappointed. But, just because the number of transactions fall doesn’t necessarily mean property values will fall. It depends on how the supply of available homes compares with the demand. Simple economics. You’ll notice I’ve added a new calculation to my watch list: “Success Rate”. The Success Rate looks at the number of sales divided by the number of properties listed for sale. That calculation results in a percentage. I’ll compare the success rate in 2020 to the success rate in 2019 from now one. The Success Rate in 2020 compared to 2019 is much lower. Translated that means the supply of homes has been out pacing sales as compared to 2019, at least for now. Our Personal Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
 Over the last twenty-two days I’ve posted nine reports about how the coronavirus pandemic has affected the real estate market in our area. Now it's time for you to let me know what YOU think. Today’s post includes a quick anonymous survey. I'll post what I learn from you in a future report. The real estate market activity in Monroe County appears to be drifting downward since the most recent set of rules under the NY PAUSE executive order were promulgated last week. Property listings are down and so are accepted contracts. Is it a buyers’ market? See the numbers below. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 7:00 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums: The real estate market in 2020:
The real estate market in 2019:
Sellers beware. The average daily number of newly listed properties and the average daily number of properties under contracts have both drifted down slightly since the most recent restrictions have been put back into place last week. The daily average of newly listed properties has been fluctuating between approximately 13 and 16 since Gov. Cuomo signed the New York PAUSE executive order on Monday, March 23, 2020. The daily average of properties under contract has fluctuated between about 3 and about 6 since March 23, 2020. The comparison between 2019 and 2020 speaks loudly and clearly about market conditions under NY PAUSE. Housing inventory is very, very low. The really striking thing is even as low as inventory is at the moment the pace of sales is even lower. In other words, if the current trend continues the market will turn from a strong market for sellers to more of a balanced market for buyers and sellers and may even drift into a market more favorable to buyers. My sense is while potential property buyers are learning and adapting to virtual real estate they are not willing to take on the risks associated with buying virtually or they are not willing to work through a real estate transaction during the crisis for personal and societal health reasons. If buyers believe the crisis is heading towards a foreseeable conclusion, they may just stay on the sidelines until the fears and risks of buying homes more-or-less unseen passes. If I’m right, it will get harder to sell before it gets better. I haven’t broken down the numbers geographically but I’m willing to bet there are some areas around Monroe County that have already moved in the direction of buyer advantage. Sellers beware. How will we know the real estate market is shifting? Well, we won’t see actual sales prices for many weeks. Sales prices are not reported until after transactions close. However, there are some symptoms that will be apparent in real time: the percentage of properties that sell will continue to drop; the number of days properties stay on the market will rise; and the number of properties that drop off the market unsold will increase. Our Personal Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
 Yesterday, April 10th, at a few minutes past noon I received an advisory from the Greater Rochester Association of REALTORS informing me the rules governing my professional activities had changed - again. Yes, it’s true. I’ll share the details and review the implications below. The Covid-19 apex may be flattening in the New York City area but the numbers are still rising dramatically in our community. Monroe County Health Commissioner, Dr. Michael Mendoza, shares his timeline and vision for a post-coronavirus recovery. I’ll give you my take below. I’ll update you on the numbers right at the top of my report. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. Sunday, April 12, 2020 at 7:00 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums:
The number of new listings rose gently as I had expected this past week. At the end of the week, however, another round of new rules restricting real estate agents’ functions was promulgated. (More on this below.) The new rules for real estate in summary:
Read the Greater Rochester Association of REALTORS advisory on the new rules here: Virtual Tours, Open Houses and Showings Explained. As a result of these “new” rules, and assuming there are no additional changes, I expect the rate of new listings and new contracts to drop in the weeks ahead. Looking Ahead. Monroe County Health Commissioner, Dr. Michael Mendoza, recently said it’s going to take two to three weeks or more before we reach the COVID-19 apex phase and then quite awhile thereafter before the crisis is sufficiently past to fully open up our society and our economy. He believes the worst of COVID-19 is yet to come for our area. By his rough calculations the re-opening of businesses and a resumption of social and recreational activities would not occur before mid-summer. In his view our society and the economy should reopen slowly and cautiously rather than all at once. Read the full story here. What are the likely implications of Dr. Mendoza’s comments? A slow and cautious re-opening of the economy probably means our area will likely remain a largely or an entirely “virtual” real estate market through the summer and perhaps even longer. That means video conference technology will remain a primary tool during this period. As the crisis recedes, as an early step to open up the real estate market, I expect buyers and agents to be able to visit properties on their own (separately) so as to minimize potential resurgence of COVID-19. At that point real estate will again be able to hold a camera inside properties and conduct video conference tours for prospective buyers and their agents who will be watching remotely. When this occurs the number of new property listings should begin to rise and the number of properties going under contract will increase as well. Each property offered for sale will have to be equipped with sanitizing materials. Sellers will become fully engaged partners with their agents to keep themselves, visiting buyers and their properties safe as well as to prepare properties for buyers and agents to see. Governor Cuomo has suggested workers should be tested before they are allowed to return to work once we are on the far side of the apex. Real estate agents and their clients may be asked to provide evidence of a clean test before entering a property. This means virtual real estate processes will remain important for folks who test positive for COVID-19 but feel well enough to participate virtually in the real estate market. More on what I think the real estate market will look like in future posts. Our Personal Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
 Since March 23rd the real estate market has been in flux. Now that the rules of engagement have been established and disseminated a new routine is emerging and the results are starting to come in: property listing inventory is dramatically down compared to 2019 but the trend line is turning up slightly. The number of properties going under contract, however, is drifting down compared to last year's pace. The coronavirus numbers in New York State seem to be flattening out 37 days into the crisis. Although he extended NY PAUSE until April 29th on Monday Governor Cuomo began talking about life and, more to the point, business life after the crisis. Monroe County Executive, Adam Bello, projected two to three more weeks of rising coronavirus numbers in our area. In Wuhan, China several months after the government began cracking down, now counts 90% of its businesses open but the economy has not bounced back. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions about the local real estate market. Thursday, April 8, 2020 at 7:00 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 News That Affects The Local Real Estate Market
What is the state of the housing market in our area right now?
The Status Of My Business:
Some Takeaways & Short Term Predictions.
Our Personal Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
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Last night the real estate community was provided essential guidance on what real estate brokerage activities will be permitted during the conronavirus pandemic. A summary of that information and a review of the implications are offered below for your consideration.
Yesterday the Monroe County Health Department suggested the coronavirus apex is likely to reach our area in May, some four to six week from now. So, it looks like we’ll be operating under these new rules through May and probably longer. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com
I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions about the local real estate market.
Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 6:30 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 740 187 3035 Password: 691499
After several days of mixed messages, confusion and concern in the real estate community New York State provided explicit guidance last night as to how real estate practitioners may proceed during the pandemic under NY PAUSE. Failure to adhere to PAUSE requirements could result in significant penalties for practitioners.
It bears repeating that receiving permission to act is not necessarily the same as staying 100% safe. Each of us, you and I, are required to use our own good judgment before we act and to keep ourselves as safe as possible when/if we do act. The rules are designed to set limits not minimums. The information from my post yesterday, April 4, 2020, under the heading “What are the options available for seeing/showing houses prior to making an offer” stands true after checking it against NYS’s message delivered today. (Click here to review my April 3rd post.) There are a few additional odds and ends that bear mentioning today:
Click here to read the New York State Association of REALTORS (NYSAR) FAQs regarding these rules and regulations. If you really want to dig in, watch the NYSAR video sent to me at the bottom of this post. Riveting. Not really. Predictions for the next three to four months based on what we know now.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
 Yesterday Empire State Development (ESD), the entity associated with the NY PAUSE executive order, issued an about-face “clarification” to real estate agents across New York State: Property showings must be virtual. Read the April 3rd article citing the clarification in the Democrat and Chronicle here. More on this topic as well as a brief update on the local residential real estate market below. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com REMINDER: I'm hosting a Zoom meeting tonight at 6:30 pm to answer your general questions about the information contained in this update and about the local real estate market. Friday, April 3, 2020 at 6:30pm - Save this link and join the Zoom Meeting on Friday evening. So, what’s the deal? It’s 3:19 pm on Friday, April 3, 2020. I was hoping to get a update clarifying the clarification from the association of REALTORS before now. Instead I got a note saying NYS hasn't given any additional direction to the real estate community as yet. So, this report is based on what I have been able to glean from a variety of sources. It’s a mixture of my opinions, my recommendations and a caldron full of imperfect information. My recommendations may become outdated at a moment’s notice when/if the underlying information changes. Just like you, I am using my best judgement in realtime, awaiting guidance from authoritative sources and then adjusting along the way. Truth be told no one inside New York State government (let alone the real estate industry) seems to know for sure what I can and cannot do for my real estate clients. Here’s what I learned this morning: New York State Association of REALTORS (NYSAR) interprets “virtual” to mean no in-person contact when conducting a showing. Licensees should conduct the showing alone and use a tool such as video conferencing with a buyer or tenant. The goal of the new standard is to further limit the possibility of one-on-one contact. NYSAR has been in contact with Empire State Development (ESD) and was informed that more comprehensive guidance will be forthcoming. NYSAR recommends that members act in good faith to follow the “virtual” standard as reported until state officials offer more clarity. What are the options available for seeing/showing houses prior to making an offer (in no particular order since it depends on if you are a buyer or seller).
Remember, home buyers may accompany professional home inspectors during their home inspection. So, if a buyer conducts a virtual tour prior to making their offer they may be able to visit the property in person during their professional inspection. What is the state of the housing market in our area?
Personal Status & The Status Of My Business:
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
 This message was written to help you better understand the implications of New York State's decision last night to allow real estate agents to show homes and meet clients in person. In case you missed it, just last night New York State re-categorized the real estate brokerage business as "essential" under NY PAUSE. Click here to read the advisory sent to all real estate agents in New York State on April 1, 2020 by the New York State Association of REALTORS (NYSAR). As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. If after reading this post you would like to discuss reentering the real estate market as a home buyer or home seller, please let me know as soon as practical. REMINDER: I am hosting two Zoom meetings tomorrow to answer your general questions and discuss your ideas: It's Thursday, April 2, 2020 and I am writing this post from my office. To say I am surprised at this turn of events is a major understatement. I join thousands upon thousands of New Yorkers working and interacting with the public under highly difficult circumstances. I have very mixed feelings about going back to work under the circumstances. I'm sure you can imagine. Enough said. I have come to understand that, for businsses, NY PAUSE has the force of law and violators are subject to penalty. However, for consumers, NY PAUSE does not have the force of law. Instead, NY PAUSE is an admonition - an exhortation - to stay indoors at this time. Very different indeed. What does the decision mean? In terms of showing properties and meeting clients the new ruling turns the clock back to how the I was operating my business before March 23rd at 8:00 pm when NY PAUSE went into effect. I am able to meet clients in person as necessary. I can show houses in person as necessary. By implication under the new ruling real state consumers are permitted to engage real estate agents in person. In cases were a personal meeting is not essential I can & will provide real estate services to my clients remotely. Naturally, individual consumers will want to assess their personal circumstances as well as the potential health risks of entering the real estate market and then consider the market and the economic conditions before deciding to participate either as a home buyer or as a home seller. I am happy to talk through all these considerations with you. Contact me anytime. Or, if you have general questions, please feel free to join one of my upcoming Zoom meetings. What about ancillary services related to buying or selling a home? If the business is a vendor, supplier or provides other support to an Essential Business that is required for the Essential Business’s operation, then that business is exempt from the employment reduction provisions contained in Executive Orders 202.8. However, only those employees necessary to support the Essential Business are exempt from the employment reduction requirements of Executive Orders 202.8 and that business is still required to utilize telecommuting or work from home procedures to the maximum extent possible. Empire State Development Essential Employer FAQ’s. It is my understanding sign installation companies, videographers, photographers, home stagers, home repair contractors and other sorts of businesses undertaking work on properties in support the real estate business may operate under the new ruling by New York State and Empire State Development so long as they follow this directive. What is likely to happen next? Most experts believe Monroe County, New York State and the rest of the country have yet to reach the apex of the coronavirus infection curve. As a result, I would not be surprised if the market does not come back in full force as compared to if we were on the far side of the apex. In addition, I expect the real estate market to grow slowly as agents and consumers learn about the news, consider their options and make their choices. Not every buyer or seller will choose to reenter the real estate market at this time. We can't know the exact percentage of those who will decide to stay out of the market. However, I think it's very fair to assume the number will be less than 100% full power. There will be fewer listings and there will be fewer home buyers looking at properties as compared to recent years. What about real estate agents? Naturally, real estate agents who test positive or real estate agents who are showing symptoms will not go back to work until they are clear of the virus. In addition, I strongly suspect older agents and agents with underlying health issues may choose not to reopen their practice despite having permission to do so. The average age of real estate agents in the United States is over 50. Still more are likely to decline to reenter out of a concern they’ll do more harm than good. So, the number of agents who may choose not to go back to work is likely to be in the 10% to 25% range and perhaps even higher since we not yet past the apex. Is it a good time to buy or sell? More on this topic in the next posting. I will continue to send these messages every few days during the coronavirus pandemic crisis. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 romecelli@realtor.com
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