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RomeReports

5/1/2020

Real Estate in the Time of Coronavirus: Impressions of the local real estate market. A look back at Final March Numbers PLUS A Snapshot of Cumulative New Listings & New Offers To Date.

The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)

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At the top of this post I'll offer my most recent observations about the local real estate market including a brief recap of my predictions for the next few weeks.

Per usual, you'll see updated cumulative numbers showing the number of newly listed properties and newly accepted offers in Monroe County going back to The first day of NY on PAUSE (March 23, 2020). As a special treat I'll share a recap of March, 2020 prepared by the Greater Rochester Association of REALTORS.


​As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation.
Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. ​Email: romecelli@realtor.com


I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market.
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 6:30 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING
Meeting ID: 585 732 1767
Password: 
625369

The real estate market is a bit weird right now.

Before March 23, 2020 there were standard operating procedures in the real estate market. Since March 23, 2020 many of the mundane, day-to-day procedural standards no longer apply. These systems and processes have been revamped, reorganized, redefined, redeployed, and reinterpreted. The process has become a bit weird.

Every seller and every buyer has different needs, different vulnerabilities, different tolerances, and different expectations. Many real estate agent have slightly different takes on what's expected and what they are able/willing to deliver.
As a result, every element of the real estate process requires customized navigation and often negotiation based on all these variables.

Bottom line:  If you are willing/interested in participating in the real estate market right now, take nothing about the process for granted. Instead, you should be prepared for a dose of confusion and touch of chaos every step of the way. I will help you! It is imperative that we talk through not only your interests and expectations but also what each individual situation requires. This is labor intensive but it's also quite necessary.

Despite all the weirdness the local real estate market is blooming.

It’s May 1st in Rochester and Spring is becoming more apparent. Market pressures in the residential real estate sector are growing. I see it in my practice. I hear it from my colleagues. I’m reading about it in publications. Buyers wanna buy. Sellers wanna sell. I’m having a hard time understanding how NY on PAUSE can hold our real estate market at bay. ​

The annual phenomenon we all know as THE SPRING REAL ESTATE MARKET wasn’t a marketing idea created by the real estate lobby. It’s a function of many highly synergistic factors such as longer, warmer days combined with the K-12 school calendar among other things. Trying to hold back the Spring real estate market is like trying to hold back rising Lake Ontario water levels with sandbags. It's nearly impossible and no one should be surprised when the water wins.

I've written this many times before now but it bears repeating: The volume of new property listings and properties under contract in our area is DISMAL compared to last year. You'll see just how bad those numbers are when as you read through the rest of this post.

​It's far too early to know the impact of the pandemic on local property values.  What buyers and sellers are experiencing in the market at any moment in time depends on a simple economic principle: supply and demand.  Are there enough properties for sale to satisfy the number of buyers? Are there enough buyers for all the properties that are listed for sale? That mixture is an expression of other factors such as interest rates, job loss, etc. In the end, though, it all boils down to supply and demand.

Check out "During the shutdown, homes are selling after virtual tours and no actual visits inside" in the DemocratandChronicle.com:  Homes not being shown physically hasn't slowed demand in Rochester.  The headline is misleading. The information in the article isn't universally true throughout are market. The press tends to focus on the unusual rather than the typical. There are plenty of stories where the opposite experience is on full display. More than 60 properties listed since March 23rd that have dropped off the market, for example.

Rome's predictions updated...
​
  • IMHO the local real estate market will grow over the coming weeks but it will NOT catch up with last year's numbers. 
  • IMHO in many areas the demand for properties will be greater than the supply of available properties. However, this will NOT be a universal situation in Monroe County. Some segments of the real estate market will lag.
  • IMHO the success rate (the number properties that sell as a percentage of those that are listed for sale) will tick up until the New York on PAUSE restrictions are lifted as described below and then the rate of growth will increase notably.
  • IMHO real estate agents will be allowed to go alone into properties that are occupied with the permission of property sellers by June 15th, if not sooner. (Right now real estate agents can only go in to homes that are vacant - no longer being occupied at all, by anyone.) When this happens it will restore the local real estate market to approximately 70-75% of the pace from that moment on.
  • IMHO real estate agents will be allowed to meet in-person with their clients using PPE and maintaining social distancing requirements by Labor Day, 2020, if not sooner. (Right now real estate agents may not meet clients in person except when meeting in person is required by law.)  When this happens it will restore the local real estate market to approximately 85% or more of the pace from that moment on.​​

Looking back on March, 2020.

I watch the market like a hawk. What can I say? I'm a nerd. Rather than bore you with a full-on review I'll just offer you the chance to look at numbers for yourself.  Unlike my regular updates this information is provided by the Greater Rochester Association of REALTORS.
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The graphic image shows the number of appointments to show properties (virtually or otherwise) scheduled through our system. This system does not capture 100% of all activity. However, by comparing the numbers year-over-year you get a sense of the impact.
New Listings March 2020 v March 2019
File Size: 279 kb
File Type: pdf
Download File

1st Quarter 2020 Summary.pdf
File Size: 193 kb
File Type: pdf
Download File


Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums:

The real estate market in 2020 under the New York on PAUSE restrictions:
​
  • New listings March 23, 2020 - April 30, 2020:  629 (16.1 average per day)
  • Properties under contract March 23, 2020 - April 30, 2020:  289 (7.4 average per day)
  • Properties that were listed from March 23, 2020 - April 30, 2020 and since dropped off the market:  61 (1.6 average per day)
  • Success rate (the number of accepted contracts/the number of property listings) in 2020: 45.6%

The real estate market in 2019:
​
  • ​​New listings March 23, 2019 - April 30, 2019:  1404 (36.0 average per day)
  • Properties “under contract” March 23, 2019 - April 30, 2019:  831 (21.3 average per day)
  • Success rate (the number of accepted contracts/the number of property listings) in 2019: 59.2%
 
  • 2020 new property listings as compared to 2019:   44.8%
  • 2020 properties “under contract” as compared to 2019:  34.7%

Our Status.
​
  • No change in the health status my family or Carol’s family. All good so far.​​​
  • Mostly I am working out of my home. Every few days I stop into the office. I'm at the office today, in fact.
  • I am regularly showing properties using video conference technology.
  • I am regularly discussing and negotiating purchase offers on behalf of my clients.
  • I have successfully listed and sold a number of properties during NY on PAUSE.
 
  • If you have time, please feel free to send me an update on how you’re doing.​

I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust.

I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis!​

Yours,


Rome Celli
585-732-1767
romecelli@realtor.com
​

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