Real Estate in the Time of Coronavirus: What do you think about the future? The Numbers: Sellers Beware.
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
Over the last twenty-two days I’ve posted nine reports about how the coronavirus pandemic has affected the real estate market in our area. Now it's time for you to let me know what YOU think. Today’s post includes a quick anonymous survey. I'll post what I learn from you in a future report.
The real estate market activity in Monroe County appears to be drifting downward since the most recent set of rules under the NY PAUSE executive order were promulgated last week. Property listings are down and so are accepted contracts. Is it a buyers’ market? See the numbers below.
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Key real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums:
The real estate market in 2020:
The real estate market in 2019:
The average daily number of newly listed properties and the average daily number of properties under contracts have both drifted down slightly since the most recent restrictions have been put back into place last week. The daily average of newly listed properties has been fluctuating between approximately 13 and 16 since Gov. Cuomo signed the New York PAUSE executive order on Monday, March 23, 2020. The daily average of properties under contract has fluctuated between about 3 and about 6 since March 23, 2020.
The comparison between 2019 and 2020 speaks loudly and clearly about market conditions under NY PAUSE. Housing inventory is very, very low. The really striking thing is even as low as inventory is at the moment the pace of sales is even lower. In other words, if the current trend continues the market will turn from a strong market for sellers to more of a balanced market for buyers and sellers and may even drift into a market more favorable to buyers.
My sense is while potential property buyers are learning and adapting to virtual real estate they are not willing to take on the risks associated with buying virtually or they are not willing to work through a real estate transaction during the crisis for personal and societal health reasons.
If buyers believe the crisis is heading towards a foreseeable conclusion, they may just stay on the sidelines until the fears and risks of buying homes more-or-less unseen passes. If I’m right, it will get harder to sell before it gets better. I haven’t broken down the numbers geographically but I’m willing to bet there are some areas around Monroe County that have already moved in the direction of buyer advantage. Sellers beware.
How will we know the real estate market is shifting? Well, we won’t see actual sales prices for many weeks. Sales prices are not reported until after transactions close. However, there are some symptoms that will be apparent in real time: the percentage of properties that sell will continue to drop; the number of days properties stay on the market will rise; and the number of properties that drop off the market unsold will increase.
Our Personal Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust.
I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis!
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