Real Estate in the Time of Coronavirus: Mostly An Update On The Numbers. Is The Risk of Contracting COVID-19 Low Enough to Merit What The Local Real Estate Market Demands?

5/4/2020

Real Estate in the Time of Coronavirus: Mostly An Update On The Numbers. Is The Risk of Contracting COVID-19 Low Enough to Merit What The Local Real Estate Market Demands?

The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)

In this post I'll put most of the focus on the numbers. As usual, I'll give you my take. In addition, I'll offer some observations about what I'm seeing in the local real estate market that build on my last post.

As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: romecelli@realtor.com

I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market.
Monday, May 11, 2020 at 6:30 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING
Meeting ID: 585 732 1767
Password: 625369

What's notable about the numbers this time around?

The rate of newly listed properties since the shutdown and the rate of newly accepted contracts shutdown both leveled-off this week.
The percentage of properties listed that have taken a contract (what I call the "success rate") since the shutdown remained flat at 46.8% in 2020 (compared to 58.7% in 2019). I continue to be astonished that the success rate in 2020 is as close as it is to 2019.
Remember, the number of listings in 2020 since the shutdown is just about 42% what it was last year. The number of properties under contract since the shutdown is just about 34% what it was last year at this time. Dismal. Terrible. Awful.

Is the risk of COVID-19 low enough to merit what the market demands? The Herd Is Speaking.

As a result of the blossoming Spring real estate market pressure is mounting to push back against social distancing guidelines and the New York on PAUSE regulations. Home buyers, who tend to be younger and less vulnerable to COVID-19, are becoming intent on doing whatever they need to do get an advantage over other buyers; seeking to reduce their home buying risk by looking at properties in person; and maximizing efficiency over personal and societal safety. A herd mentality fed by self-interest, cabin fever, nice weather is eroding support for caution.

Sellers, who up to this point have been far more concerned than buyers about the immediate impacts of exposure to coronavirus, are beginning to turn in favor of seeking higher prices and better terms over maintaining safer practices. Groups of buyers are filing through properties in some areas creating a breeding ground for coronavirus exposure. "Unaccompanied" solo appointments are transforming into turnstiles appointment schedules.

It doesn't help that the New York on PAUSE executive order is filled with admonitions & exhortations rather than explicit enforceable prohibitions. People are behaving badly behind a fig leaf: wearing a cloth mask & gloves. It reminded one of my colleagues who said on a recent call it seems like when you take antibiotic for three days and your fever's down to normal. You feel great. So, you decide you don't need to finish the remaining seven days of your prescription.

If what I have been seeing continues, the real estate market in our area is going to blow New York on PAUSE wide open let the consequences be damned. We'll see...

Key week-by-week real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums:

The number of properties listed for sale and the number of properties under contract in 2020 calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2020.

The third column in this chart shows the week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2020.

The number of properties listed for sale and the number of properties under contract in 2019 calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2019.

The third column in this chart shows the week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2019.

The cumulative number of properties listed for sale and the cumulative number of properties under contract in 2020calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2020.

The third column in this chart shows the cumulative week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2020.

The cumulative number of properties listed for sale and the cumulative number of properties under contract in 2019calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2019.

The third column in this chart shows the cumulative week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2019.

A percentage comparison of the number of properties listed for sale in 2020 v 2019 NEXT TO A percentage comparison of the number of properties under contract in 2020 v 2019 calculated on a weekly basis.

Key cumulative numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums:

The real estate market in 2020 under the New York on PAUSE restrictions:

New listings March 23, 2020 - April 30, 2020: 677 (16.1 average per day)
Properties under contract March 23, 2020 - April 30, 2020: 312 (7.4 average per day)
Properties that were listed from March 23, 2020 - April 30, 2020 and since dropped off the market: 68 (1.6 average per day)
Success rate (the number of accepted contracts/the number of property listings) in 2020: 45.6%

The real estate market in 2019:

New listings March 23, 2019 - April 30, 2019: 1582 (36.0 average per day)
Properties “under contract” March 23, 2019 - April 30, 2019: 928 (21.3 average per day)
Success rate (the number of accepted contracts/the number of property listings) in 2019: 58.7%

2020 new property listings as compared to 2019: 42.4%
2020 properties “under contract” as compared to 2019: 33.6%

Our Status.

No change in the health status my family or Carol’s family. All good so far.

Mostly I am working out of my home. Every few days I stop into the office.
I am regularly showing properties using video conference technology.
I am regularly discussing and negotiating purchase offers on behalf of my clients.
I have successfully listed and sold a number of properties during NY on PAUSE.

If you have time, please feel free to send me an update on how you’re doing.

I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust.

I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis!

Yours,

Rome Celli
585-732-1767
romecelli@realtor.com

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