The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
![]() Another week has passed and so we'll take a look at the numbers for single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected]m The numbers are back on trend: Up.
Let's not kid ourselves though. The "Success Rate" is still nearly 10% below last year's rate. I'm beginning to think this is a "tale of two markets" with one set of homes selling well and another set selling not-quite-as-well. What else could account for the disparity? The gap is narrowing.
We have a LONG way to go to catch up on the overall number transactions & $ volume of those transactions. I just don't think it's possible to catch up at this point in the calendar. The information below includes single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County.
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020
![]() Another week has passed and so we'll take a look at the numbers for single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected]m I have noticed a steady drop-off in the number of clients interested in group Q & A sessions using the Zoom platform. As a result, until further notice I will no longer be hosting client Q & A sessions on Monday nights. However, I will continue to use Zoom and other similar platforms for individual client needs. Highlights from this week's numbers:
A NOTE ON PROPERTY VALUES: When the seller of a home accepts an offer it takes approximately two months for the transaction to close and for the final price to be recorded. As a result, there is very, very little data on sale prices following the March 23rd shutdown. Once we know sales prices we can then take a look at the difference between those sales prices and the asking prices. We can also calculate the median and the mean. Unfortunately, it will be many, many months before we can do these calculations and see any trends based on sale prices. It will be at least a year until trend lines are demonstrable in any form. If normal seasonal variations are skewed due to the impacts of COVID-19, it may be years before we see normal seasonal trends! In the meantime, we can look at three factors:
The information below includes single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County.
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
![]() Most of the functionality of the local real estate market has been restored under Phase 2 of the NY Forward reopening plan. Access to properties by all parties is now allowed. We’ll have to wait-and-see the extent to which the public is willing to engage in house shopping and house buying as the market opens back up and the pandemic numbers drop down. In terms of my predictions about Phase 2: I was wrong before I was right and then, in the end, I was partially right or partially wrong depending on how you look at it. Read all about it below. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected] I host a weekly Zoom meeting to answer your general questions about the local real estate market. Mondays at 8:00 pm EST CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 954010 Phase 2 of NY Forward comes to the Finger Lakes Region and Rochester. At a few minutes after 1:00 pm on Friday, May 29th Governor Andrew Cuomo announced the Finger Lakes region - including the Metro Rochester area - would move to "Phase 2" of NY Forward, the governor's incremental plan to re-open the economy in New York State. The residential real estate sector in our area would be allowed to expand it's operations with certain notable limitations as of yesterday, Saturday, May 30th. Here’s the executive summary of what’s allowed (with restrictions described below) in the residential real estate sector during Phase 2:
Download and read this file if you want to know all the gory details of Phase 2 as it relates to the real estate business.
A closer look at what’s allowed for residential real estate under Phase 2: There are two main areas for you to understand about residential real estate during Phase 2: the administrative functions in real estate AND the interactions with real estate clients and the public at large. I'll very briefly touch on the administrative side before digging in on the new rules related to interacting with clients and the public. With respect to the administrative side of the business all real estate companies must submit detailed plans for how they will operate and interact with each other, clients and the public. Offices staff must minimize interaction, wear masks, keep social distancing standards and sanitize everything in sight. Visitors on-site at real estate office are prohibited except when it cannot otherwise be avoided. COVID testing and contact tracing are embedded in the regulations. This phase should be implemented in steps over time rather than all-at-once. What follows is a deeper dive into property showings and related activities: Responsible Parties (real estate brokerage companies and agents) may conduct in-person property showings while adhering to social distancing and required PPE safety guidelines. The following measures must be followed:
Responsible Parties are encouraged not to show common building amenities in-person (e.g. gym, roof deck, pool).
Responsible Parties should encourage only one party (e.g. building inspector, home appraiser, prospective tenant/buyer, photographer, stager) to be allowed inside the property at a time. If more than one party is inside the property at the same time, 6 feet of distance must be maintained at all times between individuals, and face coverings must be worn.
Responsible Parties are encouraged, but not required, to conduct remote walkthroughs rather than in-person walkthroughs (e.g. recorded/live video), where possible. Analysis, Musings & Reflections. First, in my opinion, these changes open the real estate market up significantly. While market access and functionality may not be back to where it was on January 1st it’s pretty close. Now, the most significant impediment will be consumer fears/concerns. I expect the volume of listings and transactions to rise quickly. The market may well return to about 85% to 90% of the normal pace for June - higher in July and August. The market probably will not reach full steam until later in 2020. Back in mid April when I was attempting to predict the future I did not expect in-person appointments with clients and the public by now. I thought we’d get to that point in July or so. I didn’t expect even limited “open houses” until later in the year. Then, after seeing the COVID related numbers drop I began to think in-person appointments would be allowed in Phase 2. At no time did I expect any variation of “Open Houses” to be permitted during Phase 2. Although Open Houses are efficient in the sense that they allow many prospects to look at a property in a very short period of time why allow such risky behavior when prospects can preview properties online and otherwise schedule an appointment? Well, probably because there was no way to define an in-person property viewing - even one-at-a-time - without it being applied in a manner similar to an open house (e.g., 2-3 pm on a Saturday afternoon). So, I guess it makes sense from a practical point of view. In my opinion Open Houses unnecessarily expose the public to a greater risk than any benefits they may provide.
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020).
![]() SUMMARY: Whenever Phase 2 of the re-opening plan begins in our area in-person client appointments will be allowed in the residential real estate sector. Phase 2 of the reopening plan has NOT begun anywhere in NYS as of today. However, Phase 2 is expected soon - perhaps as soon as this weekend or early next week. NYSAR has passed along an extensive advisory for the real estate sector from New York State on what will be allowed & required during Phase 2. In person client appointments will be allowed. A more complete report along with my commentary will be posted within the next several days. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected]m The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020
![]() There's reason for at least some optimism about the local real estate market. The numbers are trending up. In some areas and in some price ranges sellers are doing well. In other areas and in other price ranges buyers might even have the upper hand. As a practitioner, however, it's hard to be enthusiastic about A 50% drop in market activity compared to last year. To be fair, real estate is better off than many sectors - particularly bars & restaurants. I'm not complaining so much as explaining. It's important for consumers to separate out the anecdotal information from the overall picture of the market. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected] Due to the Memorial Day holiday there will be no Q&A Zoom meeting this Monday evening. Monday evening Q&A sessions will re-Zoom next week. The number of newly listed properties was larger this week than it was on the same week in 2019! For the first time since the shutdown the number of newly listed properties was higher on weekly basis than it was last year. Listings have come in at average of more than 200 per week for the last three weeks. Pretty good, right? Yes BUT... Last year the average number of listings per week over the same three week period was a whopping 283! Listings this year are still only about 55% of what they were last year at this time. What about properties under contract? The number of properties under contract has been fluctuating on a weekly basis. Porperties under contract went down this week compared to last week and compared to last year. However, the long term trend is on the rise if every-so-slowly. Herky-jerky. It should come as no surprise that market activity has been moving along in fits-and-starts this year. The rules have been changing. The weather has been out-of-synch with the calendar. The economy is opening back up in a rational way but not in a particularly friendly to home buyers and home sellers. People aren’t entirely sure what to think about the future. Making a large purchase that requires confidence about the future is very difficult under these circumstances. One day you’re feeling good and the next day not-so-much. Let's look at "The Success Rate". I call the percentage of properties under contract the Success Rate. By under contract I mean the sellers have accepted an offer from a buyer. It doesn't mean the deal has closed. The Success Rate changes from day to day because some deals fall apart one week and others come together. Still, The Success Rate gives us a nice on-the-fly measure of market activity. By comparing the Success Rate in 2020 with the Success Rate in 2019 we can see if the market is favoring buyers vs sellers this year compared to last year. So, what about it? Since the shutdown on March 23, 2020 the Success Rate is running about 54%. In 2019 the success rate for the same period last year was just over 63%. The overall Success Rate suggests buyers may have an slight edge compared to last year. Remember, last year was a hell of a good year for sellers. Before you scream in my face about all the stories you’re hearing about gads of offers on every house everywhere remember, it’s a Facebook world. We only hear about certain kinds of stories. People don’t normally post about the unusually long time their property sat on the market or how they had to drop their price or how a deal failed. I’m not saying property values are dropping. I’m not saying it’s a “buyers’ market”. It’s not a buyers’ market overall. The market seems to be favoring sellers overall. Still, compared to last year... One way or the other buyers should proceed with caution. Sellers’ expectations are very, very, very high. Sooooo high! In certain areas the market has been delivering the goods. However, because the market has not been quite as favorable to sellers this year compared to last year buyers should assess their situation carefully to make sure they are submitting offers based on good information. Don’t rely on historic sales data. Sadly, the historic sales information is of little use to buyers in today’s market. There is no trend line. The trend line was obliterated by COVID-19. We won’t be able to discern a reliable trend line again until summer or fall of 2021. We’ll only be able to look back in wonder at what happened In 2020. 2020 is and will always be an anomaly. The marketplace is pricing properties in real time. It’s all about supply and demand. In this market a property that sits unsold after a couple of weeks is probably overpriced. Regardless of how long a property has been on the market if there are multiple offers under consideration by the seller, that property is probably underpriced. This is not a bashful market. Buyers aren’t sitting on the sidelines. This may be a bubble but you can’t buy today’s inventory at next year’s prices. If you don’t like the water, get out of the pool. The information below includes single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County. The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
![]() There are times when missing a deadline might be a bit of good news. What happened? I missed my self-imposed deadline for posting to this blog yesterday. Why? I was too busy with client appointments. It almost felt like a normal day in real estate. Good times! What’s really odd about my being so busy is that nothing has changed under NY on PAUSE since May 15th. Nothing. Not-one-thing. And yet the local real estate market has picked up speed. Home buyers and home sellers want to act. Real estate agents want to serve their clients. Momentum is growing.. It’s safe to engage in the real estate market but you’ll have to beware of the pitfalls and you’ll have to assert yourself. I’ll give you some guidance. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected] I host a weekly Zoom meeting to answer your general questions about the local real estate market. Mondays at 8:00 pm EST CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 954010 The real estate market continues to grow slowly but the rate of increase is going up. The number of single family homes, condominiums and townhouses listed for sale last week alone jumped by over 220 last week! Yes, that's over 30 new listings per day! Compare that to the first week of the shutdown when just about 10 homes were listed each day. On the other hand, compared to last year during the same week nearly 350 properties were listed. So, although the market activity if definitely up it's still no where near where it was last year. The success rate (the percentage of properties listed that have accepted an offer) this year is coming in at about 52%. At this point In 2019 the success rate was about 60%. So, overall, the market is not quite delivering the same results this year as compared to last year. Not bad, though, right?!
What are the immediate implications? The low inventory of properties for sale is a disincentive to buyers entering the market. You can’t buy what’s not for sale. Rising inventory is likely to draw home buyers into the market. When properties sell some of those home sellers transform into home buyers. One transaction creates another. How safe is it to engage in the real estate market? It’s safe but you’ll have to assert yourself if you want to avoid unnecessary risks. The primary risk of exposure is present when you are at properties in person. What to do? First and foremost, take all the precautions you already know about: wear a mask, wash your hands, disinfect, and, most important of all: stay away from others! There’s no reason you need to engage with others in person. None. Second, consult with me about your options. I have many ideas & techniques about how to stay safe and still maximize your results. In any case, make your concerns explicit. Don’t be afraid to push back if you are not comfortable with what you are experiencing. The information below includes single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County. Long term trend lines. The trend lines were obliterated by COVID-19. There are no trend lines worth projecting at the moment. Still, a look backwards can be helpful to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the local market. Months Supply of Properties Since January, 2017This graph looks at all "existing" single family homes, condominiums and townhouses listed for sale in Monroe County as of April 30, 2020. This information does not include new construction.
"Months of Supply of Homes For Sale" is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5 month supply of homes for sale. "Pending Sales" Since January, 2017This graph looks at all "existing" single family homes, condominiums and townhouses listed for sale in Monroe County as of April 30, 2020. This information does not include new construction.
"Pending Sales" are noted in the database after the seller has accepted a buyer's offer and the buyer's only remaining contingency is completion of the mortgage process prior to the eventual closing and transfer of title. Median Sales Price Since January, 2017This graph looks at all "existing" single family homes, condominiums and townhouses listed for sale in Monroe County as of April 30, 2020. This information does not include new construction.
The "median" is the "middle" value in the list of property sales prices. To find the median, the sales prices have to be listed in numerical order from smallest to largest. The "mode" is the value that occurs most often regardless of where it falls in the distribution. The median is very different from the mean. The mean is the average of the sales prices. It is easy to calculate. In other words it is the sum divided by the count. Our Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 [email protected]
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
![]() As expected, Governor Cuomo said the Finger Lakes region including Monroe County will be allowed to partially reopen its economy as of this weekend under "Phase One" of the NYS economic reopening plan with limited construction, manufacturing and curbside retail. Real estate is considered "Phase Two" of the plan. It is unclear when Phase Two will begin. In this post I'll focus attention on an update to the weekly numbers associated with the real estate market in Monroe County and compare those numbers to last year. As with prior posts I will show you the number of properties listed for sale; the number of properties under contract and the "success rate". Summary: although not much is new on the surface I noted an interesting phenomenon this week worth mentioning to you. Just below the weekly update I give you a broad overview of the real estate market in our region since 2019. This overview includes Monroe County as well as surrounding counties. In a future post I'll give you a look at the long term trends in our real estate market. Please note, I am moving my weekly Zoom meetings to a later time due to the expectation that I will be taking more appointments at locations away from my home office on most evenings for the foreseeable future. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected] I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. PLEASE NOTE THE TIME CHANGE. I expect my appointment schedule to fill up in the evenings due to recent changes described below. As a result, I have moved my Zoom meetings later. Monday, May 11, 2020 at 8:00 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 62536 Selected businesses in Monroe County & around the Finger Lakes region will re-open after May 15th. As expected, Governor Cuomo said the Finger Lakes region including Monroe County will be allowed to partially reopen its economy as of this weekend under "Phase One" of the NYS economic reopening plan with limited construction, manufacturing and curbside retail. Real estate is considered "Phase Two" of the plan. It is unclear when Phase Two will begin. Read the New York Forward Opening Guide:
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Key week-by-week real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums since March 23, 2020. One interesting tidbit that will not be apparent after a casual review of this information: The number of properties under contract (aka, the "success rate") in 2020 has been volatile. In particular, sales that occurred in the first couple of weeks after the shutdown failed not long after they were consummated. It appears sellers were accepting offers on their properties from buyers who had not actually seen the property in person. Some of those potential transactions fell apart quickly after the buyer saw the property in person. Those properties appear to have found new buyers since the overall success rate continues to rise, albeit gently, even as the overall number of listings has been rising. Sadly, the number of properties listed in 2020 is still just 46.9% as compared to the same period in 2019. The number of properties under contract is 37.4% of 2019. Gulp!
The information below includes single family homes, condominiums and townhouses located in Monroe County. This information takes the 2020 market activity and measure it against results from comparison year of 2019 directly.
Here's a look at the regional market in our area going back to 2019. These numbers were calculated to the end of April, 2020. The first two graphs should be self-apparent. The last graph will not be familiar to most consumers: "Months of Supply of Homes For Sale" is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5 month supply of homes for sale. In my next post I'll offer a look at our marketplace going back a few years to help put the numbers we are seeing now in perspective. Our Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 [email protected]
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
![]() The news came in as quiet as a mouse. Yesterday the New York State Association of REALTORS (NYSAR) advised members of a very important update to the New York on PAUSE executive order. Details below. I’m moving to an every-week-on-Monday report on the numbers. I am moving my weekly Zoom meetings to a later time due to the expectation that I will be taking more appointments at locations away from my home office on most evenings for the foreseeable future. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected] I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. PLEASE NOTE THE TIME CHANGE. I expect my appointment schedule to fill up in the evenings due to recent changes described below. As a result, I have moved my Zoom meetings later. Monday, May 11, 2020 at 8:00 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 62536 ![]() This is a HUGE step forward. With absolutely NO fanfare NYSAR notified members by email yesterday real estate agents may enter properties (ALONE) with the seller’s permission even if those properties are occupied. As a result, I will be able to see visit both vacant and occupied properties in person (ALONE) to broadcast from those properties using video technology such as FaceTime & Zoom to my buyer clients. As you know, I've been expecting this step for some time. What's remarkable is that it comes before the NY on PAUSE expires next week on May 15th. How with this news affect the local real estate market? First, I expect the local real estate market to climb back up to 70%-75% of the normal pace as real estate agents now get out of their home offices and get back to the business of looking at homes, broadcasting to clients on FaceTime, Zoom and other similar technologies. This move will cause agents to encourage more market activity. It will encourage property sellers to list properties and property buyers to engage more aggressively in the market. Second, it brings the next step, meeting clients in person, closer. This week I also learned NYSAR is already lobbying NYS to enable real estate agents to meet clients. As you may recall, I suggested I would be able to meet clients in person before Labor Day. I may have been too pessimistic given where we are now. When real estate agents are permitted to meet their clients in person I expect the market to return to 85% or more of normal activity. Why not 100%? Some people won't be able to act for economic reasons like job loss. Others won't feel comfortable out of health or economic fears. In the meantime I will remind you... Don't be surprised if you hear about friends meeting their real estate agents in person. I expect the real estate market (agents, buyers and sellers) will continue to push hard against any/all restrictions despite calls for caution. I expect by the time our area enters "Phase 2" of the economic re-opening in NYS most real estate practitioners will already be operating as though we’ve been in Phase 2 for weeks. I am already seeing my colleagues meeting their clients in person in front of properties as they prepare to go inside, one after the other. Many real estate agents are just not willing to follow the guidelines. Caution be damned. The momentum to enter the next step, meeting clients & members of the public in person, will soon be overwhelming and unstoppable. I would not be surprised if the real estate market tale ends up wagging the NYS regulatory dog. From now on: Weekly reports on real estate market numbers. From this point on I will only report on the real estate numbers weekly on Mondays instead of every few days. We've gotten to the point where establishing the new normal will come more gradually. Trend lines will soon become apparent. I don't expect daily gyrations of any importance to my clients. It is important, however, to look for new trend lines as they emerge. Property sellers need to know how to set their asking price and chose the most effective marketing options. Home buyers need to know what to expect of housing inventory and how to structure their offers. Our Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 [email protected]
The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
![]() This is a special report. Extra! Extra! Read all about it! Yesterday Governor Cuomo announced the New York on PAUSE executive order will be allowed to expire on May 15th setting the stage for the economy to open on a region-by-region basis across New York State. I have captured the most salient slides from the Governor’s presentation as it applies to our real estate market. See the slides and my analysis below. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected]
What does all this mean for the local real estate market?
I expect the local area to be ready to enter Phase 1 of the reopening on or not long after May 15th. It will take 2-3 weeks after Phase 1 has been implemented to see if the rate of infections and the rate of hospitalizations remain low. I am optimistic our area will advance to Phase 2 in mid June, if not before. When our area is approved for Phase 2 the real estate sector will be allowed to reopen in steps as determined by a local consortium of business, health and government leaders. While it's not clear what reopening the real estate market will look like at that point I believe, at minimum, real estate agents will officially be allowed to enter occupied properties in person, alone and with the informed consent of the property owner. I strongly suspect a limited number of office staff will be allowed to enter professional offices so long as everyone wears PPE and maintains social distancing. The decision to allow real estate agents to enter properties will result in a significant boost. It will allow agents to see properties first hand and offer opinions to buyers and sellers. It will allow agents - rather than home sellers - to broadcast (FaceTime, Zoom, etc.) tours as well as perform simple tasks such as preparing a home to be shown and securing the property down after an appointment. At this point, in my humble opinion, the real estate market will be able to operate at 70% or higher effectiveness. What’s missing? What’s next? Some members of the public and some real estate agents will not feel comfortable engaging in real estate related activities until safe treatments are widely available and/or a cure is found. Some sellers will remain unwilling to allow agents and/or buyers to enter their property except under very limited circumstances. Video conference tours, interactive virtual tours, pre-recorded video tours, etc. will remain essential during the reopening process and through the end of the year at least. Until the risk of infection is significantly reduced and everyone feels comfortable many buyers will submit offers to purchase property never having set foot inside but conditioned on a walkthrough immediately after acceptance of their offer. Complicated. Not ideal. Necessary. Then what? If the rate of infections and hospitalizations remains low, then by Labor Day I expect real estate agents to be able to meet clients and members of the public in person in very small numbers with everyone using PPE and maintaining social distancing. When real estate agents are allowed to meet their clients and members of the public in person it will restore nearly all the functionality necessary for an fully effective real estate market. My guess: the market will operate at 90% or more of normal effectiveness at that point. All this will be met with celebration until the anticipated second wave of COVID-19 hits in the fall; probably after the election in November. Hopefully, by then we’ll have found effective treatments if not a outright cure. Since that scenario is unlikely I expect we’ll enter 2021 under a pall of uncertainty over COVID and the economy. It’s going to be a rough ride. In the meantime. Of course, I could be wrong but I expect the real estate market (agents, buyers and sellers) will continue to push hard against the current rules under NY on PAUSE. As a practical matter by the time we enter Phase 2 most real estate practitioners will already be operating as though we’ve been in Phase 2 for weeks. Momentum will be nearly overwhelming to enter the next step: meeting clients & members of the public in person. What should you do? Get ready to make hay while the sun shines. If you have the intent to purchase or sell property in the foreseeable future, the time to wait is over. You’re going to want to get ready to act now. More on this in my next post. The number of days that have passed since the beginning of the New York on PAUSE (March 23, 2020)
![]() In this post I'll put most of the focus on the numbers. As usual, I'll give you my take. In addition, I'll offer some observations about what I'm seeing in the local real estate market that build on my last post. As always, I am available to talk privately with you about your particular real estate situation. Call, text or FaceTime: 585-732-1767. Email: [email protected] I'm hosting a Zoom meeting to answer your general questions and talk about the local real estate market. Monday, May 11, 2020 at 6:30 pm - CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE MEETING Meeting ID: 585 732 1767 Password: 625369 What's notable about the numbers this time around?
Is the risk of COVID-19 low enough to merit what the market demands? The Herd Is Speaking. As a result of the blossoming Spring real estate market pressure is mounting to push back against social distancing guidelines and the New York on PAUSE regulations. Home buyers, who tend to be younger and less vulnerable to COVID-19, are becoming intent on doing whatever they need to do get an advantage over other buyers; seeking to reduce their home buying risk by looking at properties in person; and maximizing efficiency over personal and societal safety. A herd mentality fed by self-interest, cabin fever, nice weather is eroding support for caution. Sellers, who up to this point have been far more concerned than buyers about the immediate impacts of exposure to coronavirus, are beginning to turn in favor of seeking higher prices and better terms over maintaining safer practices. Groups of buyers are filing through properties in some areas creating a breeding ground for coronavirus exposure. "Unaccompanied" solo appointments are transforming into turnstiles appointment schedules. It doesn't help that the New York on PAUSE executive order is filled with admonitions & exhortations rather than explicit enforceable prohibitions. People are behaving badly behind a fig leaf: wearing a cloth mask & gloves. It reminded one of my colleagues who said on a recent call it seems like when you take antibiotic for three days and your fever's down to normal. You feel great. So, you decide you don't need to finish the remaining seven days of your prescription. If what I have been seeing continues, the real estate market in our area is going to blow New York on PAUSE wide open let the consequences be damned. We'll see... Key week-by-week real estate numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums: The number of properties listed for sale and the number of properties under contract in 2020 calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2020.The third column in this chart shows the week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2020.
The number of properties listed for sale and the number of properties under contract in 2019 calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2019.The third column in this chart shows the week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2019.
The cumulative number of properties listed for sale and the cumulative number of properties under contract in 2020calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2020.The third column in this chart shows the cumulative week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2020.
The cumulative number of properties listed for sale and the cumulative number of properties under contract in 2019calculated on a weekly basis since March 23, 2019.The third column in this chart shows the cumulative week-by week "success rate" (the percentage of properties listed in a given week that have taken a contract) in 2019.
Key cumulative numbers in Monroe County for single family homes, townhouses and condominiums: The real estate market in 2020 under the New York on PAUSE restrictions:
The real estate market in 2019:
Our Status.
I will continue to post updates related to the metro Rochester real estate market during the coronavirus. The situation is changing rapidly. You deserve the most recent information about our real estate market from a source you trust. I wish you and your loved ones good health and good spirits during this unfortunate crisis! Yours, Rome Celli 585-732-1767 [email protected]
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